Wednesday, December 23, 2015

If History is Any Indication...

Will Trump win the GOP nomination?
Who will win the Republican primary?  If recent history is any indication, it is far too early to tell. And with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary not taking place until February 2016, anything can happen. 

Let's look at the past few election cycles:

In December 2012, Newt Gingrich was leading in the polls.  Mitt Romney eventually got the GOP nomination.

In December 2008, Rudy Giuliani was leading in the polls. Mike Huckabee was in second place. John McCain eventually got the GOP nomination.

In December 2004, Howard Dean was leading in the polls.  He was followed by Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark.  John Kerry eventually got the GOP nomination.

We have a long way to go.